Claims under pressure · complete current prediction surface

Predictions that can lose.

All 11 current/tracked UTFANSWF prediction surfaces are listed here in one scan-first index. A prediction becomes scientifically useful when its claim is specific enough to confront data and its failure conditions are visible.

Internal closure and scientific validation are different layers. The detailed record preserves values, gate status, open boundaries, technical links, and the conditions that would pressure or defeat the candidate.

Current prediction record: the ordered index below reflects the August 19, 2026 global audit and later v23 hardening. The August 16 and August 19 dated records remain preserved so superseded, demoted, and unchanged claims stay visible.

Read the status correctly

Four different statements, four different weights.

Candidate

The framework proposes it.

A defined result, window, structural relation, or forecast exists in the current framework or a clearly labeled controlled research extension.

Internal PASS

The bundled gate accepts it.

The result remains inside the release’s declared logic, thresholds, provenance rules, and cross-gate constraints.

Replicated run

Someone reruns the artifact.

The same code and frozen inputs reproduce the recorded output under documented conditions.

Independent support

Outside evidence bears weight.

Independent implementations, specialist review, and new data test the scientific claim itself rather than only the shipped artifact.

All predictions

Current prediction list

  1. Fine structure / 1/137Blind checkpoint α⁻¹=137.03735243; post-mixed rung 137.00222764Row 27 PASS · final handoff open
  2. Exact Z₆ proton stabilityΔB=1 and ΔB=2 forbidden; ΔB=3 first allowedPASS · exact selection rule
  3. Distributed H₀H₀ = 73.134202 km/s/Mpc public distributed candidateCandidate preserved
  4. Nucleon matter scaleMᴺ isoQCD = 941.223 ± 35.184 MeVRow 29 PASS
  5. PSN-v2 gauge runningThresholds at 1.816, 2.568, and 3.632 TeV; αem⁻¹(10 TeV)=123.573523PASS · downstream forecast
  6. Light-quark response±10% light-quark shift → approximately ±4.4 MeV nucleon responsePASS · robust sign
  7. Axion dark matter6–60 μeV declared prediction/search bandRow 21 PASS · partial direct coverage
  8. Black-hole ringdownCanonical Kerr tensor branch closes with zero reflective echo amplitudeRow 23 canonical closure PASS
  9. Flavor structureThree families + ordered P3 + ε=√2/5 + Hodge 10:5̄ = 2:1Structural candidate · CKM/CP open
  10. Heavy-threshold structureε = √2/5 globally compatible candidate ratioCandidate · uniqueness open
  11. JWST early-structure diagnosticEight-point UVLF diagnostic reproduced; physical validation remains openDiagnostic retained

The detailed table below is the authoritative website record for values, status wording, boundaries, and technical links.

Detailed record

Prediction values, status, and technical records

PredictionHeadline resultStatusTechnical record
Fine structure / 1/137Electromagnetic closureBlind checkpoint: α−1=137.03735243
Verified post-mixed rung: 137.00222764Final source-complete handoff remains open.
Row 27 PASS · open boundaryOpen 1/137 record →
NP-02 · Exact Z6NEW · Aug. 19, 2026
Baryon violation / proton stability
ΔB=1 and ΔB=2 forbidden
ΔB=3 first allowed · dimension 15Trinucleon lifetime remains open.
PASS · exact selection ruleOpen NP-02 data →
Distributed H₀CosmologyH₀ = 73.134202 km/s/MpcPublic distributed candidate; correlated-BAO reclosure remains tracked separately.Candidate preservedOpen H₀ master record →
Nucleon matter scaleNonperturbative QCDMNisoQCD = 941.223 ± 35.184 MeVNf=2+1 target-isolated continuum/chiral closure.Row 29 PASSOpen nucleon record →
NP-03 · PSN-v2 gauge runningNEW · Aug. 19, 2026
Electroweak / split spectrum
Thresholds: 1.816 · 2.568 · 3.632 TeV
αem−1(10 TeV)=123.573523Three-kink one-loop running signature.
PASS · downstream forecastOpen NP-03 data →
NP-01 · Light-quark responseNEW · Aug. 19, 2026
QCD / nucleon response
+10% mud → +4.36 ± 1.43 MeV
−10% mud → −4.39 ± 1.46 MeVFrozen curve extends through ±20%.
PASS · robust signOpen NP-01 data →
Axion dark matterDark matter6–60 μeV declared prediction/search bandCurrent root comparison directly covers 10–60 μeV.Row 21 PASS · partial direct coverageOpen axion record →
Black-hole ringdownStrong gravity / gravitational wavesKerr (2,2,0) QNM benchmark PASSCanonical EH+R² branch: cT²=1, mT²=0, RNZH=0 and Υ=0. A nonzero reflective extension is not canonical.Row 23 canonical closure PASSOpen ringdown record →
Flavor structureFamilies / Yukawa architectureThree families + ordered P3 + ε=√2/5 + Hodge 10:5̄ = 2:1Full numerical CKM/CP prediction remains open.Structural candidate · CKM/CP openOpen flavor record →
Heavy-threshold structureUV / GUT threshold candidateε = √2/5 remains a viable globally compatible ratioCurrent target-free structure does not uniquely force the selector.Candidate · uniqueness openOpen threshold record →
JWST early-structure diagnosticEarly-universe structureEight-point UVLF diagnostic reproducedNo standalone physical JWST PASS is claimed.Diagnostic retained · validation openOpen JWST record →

Status key: PASS means internally reproduced under the stated UTFANSWF gate or auxiliary layer; it does not mean independent experimental validation.

At a glance

Prediction snapshot

One compact view of the current public prediction surface and the internal machine state behind it.

11tracked prediction surfacesEach one is listed above with its current public status.
3new Aug. 19 predictionsLight-quark response, exact Z₆ proton stability, and PSN-v2 gauge running.
11/11linked technical recordsEvery row points to a supporting data or technical record on the site.
18/18 + 8/8internal closure statusCanonical harness PASS plus Frog research closeout; external validation remains separate.
GreenInternally passed, reproduced, or preserved under the stated current contract.
Open / diagnosticStill scientifically testable or awaiting source-complete / external closure.
Technical recordUse the linked page to see the value, boundary conditions, provenance, and caveats.

Cosmology caution

A distributed resolution is a joint problem.

The distributed H₀ candidate should not be judged by moving one number in isolation. Its scientific test is whether the connected construction can simultaneously respect the relevant BAO, CMB/ACT, matter-density, sound-horizon, supernova, gravitational-wave, and covariance information.

Current boundary

The public distributed candidate is preserved separately from the hardened v23 background-fit diagnostics. The master record retains held-out performance, localized construction stress, negative controls, covariance structure, and diagnostic alternatives rather than silently collapsing them into one number.

Open the H₀ master record

Additional testing surfaces

Not every active gate is a numbered prediction.

Neutral Zone

Structured transition behavior remains testable.

The NZ program tests whether transition regions carry reproducible structure rather than behaving as featureless boundaries. A pre-registered observable showing no predicted structure—or incompatible structure—would pressure that mapping.

Robustness / integrity

The release itself has to survive stress.

Provenance, reference integrity, stress tests, guardrails, portability, and one-command execution remain part of the testing surface. Broken provenance, hidden dependencies, unstable thresholds, or non-reproducible outputs count against the release.

How it could fail

Failure is part of the design.

Observational exclusion

New measurements rule out a predicted region, correlation, threshold, or tolerance.

Bridge inconsistency

A mapping works only by changing definitions, double counting evidence, or adding undeclared freedom.

Reproduction failure

The code, data, configuration, or paper cannot reproduce the reported result under documented conditions.

Baseline defeat

Conventional GR, ΛCDM, EFT, QCD, ringdown, axion, or other domain calculations explain the same evidence with less structure and no unique UTFANSWF gain.

Holdout failure

A result shaped on known inputs does not survive genuinely new, sequestered, or prospective data.

Cross-gate conflict

Passing one domain forces another connected gate or protected prediction outside its admissible region.

Bottom line: UTFANSWF now exposes specific predictions, executable gates, technical records, open boundaries, adverse results, and explicit failure paths. The next scientific step is not another internal PASS alone; it is independent reproduction, baseline comparison, specialist criticism, and prospective testing against data the framework did not shape.

Run the release before judging the output.

The bundle exposes the gate sequence, inputs, results, provenance, and reports.

Open the reproduction guide