# UTFANSWF — Authoritative New Predictions Ledger
## 2026-08-19

This file supersedes the status labels of intermediate Aug. 19 scratch outputs.
Historical files are preserved for provenance.

## SURVIVES

### NP-01 — Fixed-t0 RGI light-quark nucleon response

-20% m_ud -> Delta M_N = -8.808 +/- 2.940 MeV
-10% m_ud -> Delta M_N = -4.390 +/- 1.456 MeV
 -5% m_ud -> Delta M_N = -2.192 +/- 0.725 MeV
 +5% m_ud -> Delta M_N = +2.185 +/- 0.719 MeV
+10% m_ud -> Delta M_N = +4.362 +/- 1.429 MeV
+20% m_ud -> Delta M_N = +8.697 +/- 2.826 MeV

Associated local response:
Sigma_ud^(t0 fixed) = 43.76 +/- 14.42 MeV
K_ud = d ln(M_N)/d ln(m_ud)|t0 = 0.04650 +/- 0.01602

Sign and monotonicity survive every leave-one-lattice-spacing rerun.

### NP-02 — Exact-Z6 baryon-violation order/channel prediction

DeltaB=1: forbidden
DeltaB=2: forbidden
isolated proton width: 0
first allowed baryon violation: DeltaB=3
lowest EFT dimension: 15

Leading channel classes:
ppp -> e+ pi+ pi+
ppn -> e+ pi+
pnn -> e+ pi0
nnn -> anti-nu pi0

No trinucleon lifetime is claimed: the dimension-15 Wilson coefficient/scale remains open.

### NP-03 — PSN-v2 split-spectrum gauge-running forecast

One-loop split-threshold prediction:
alpha_em^-1(250 GeV) = 127.529077
alpha_em^-1(1 TeV)   = 126.720080
alpha_em^-1(2 TeV)   = 126.274648
alpha_em^-1(2.568378 TeV) = 126.022525
alpha_em^-1(3 TeV)   = 125.791779
alpha_em^-1(3.632235 TeV) = 125.507708
alpha_em^-1(10 TeV)  = 123.573523
alpha_em^-1(100 TeV) = 119.175910

Thresholds: 1.81611748, 2.56837797, 3.63223496 TeV.
EM inverse-coupling slope jumps:
-0.424413182, -0.477464829, -0.424413182.

The lost D/S field-label assignment cancels exactly from alpha_em and alpha3
running at one loop. It does not cancel from sin^2(theta), so that quantity
retains a two-branch envelope.

## CONDITIONAL / NOT PROMOTED

Flavor V6 produces a strong hierarchy shape but the source-complete 7-9-2/Hodge
discrete set fails the full CKM test. It is not promoted as a full flavor prediction.

The lattice-HVP self-consistent alpha branch uses external QCD response and is
not an internally generated UTFANSWF prediction.

## DEMOTED / SUPERSEDED

- Physical sigma-term promotion 45.42 / 51.85 MeV: superseded.
- Light-quark curvature -126.7 GeV^-1: demoted after robustness failure.
- Strange response: not promoted.
- fT/yN values based on superseded physical sigma promotion: superseded.
- 2.782648 TeV effective SUSY scale as an independent prediction: demoted for circularity.
- 1.778976e16 GeV GUT scale from that re-solve: same circularity.
- Simplified single-3-TeV two-loop collider running: diagnostic only; replaced by the
  recovered split-spectrum one-loop forecast.
- P3 V1-V5 full-flavor attempts: failed/reconstruction provenance only.

## OPEN

- Internal numerical HVP and proton-QED current-current responses.
- DeltaB=3 Wilson coefficient and trinucleon lifetime.
- Full CKM/CP vacuum/holonomy selection.
- Physical sigma-term conversion with controlled scale response.

Protected main.tex and main.pdf remain untouched.
